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Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-16T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From SIDC Ursigram: Issued: 2023 Mar 14 1231 UTC

"Another filament
eruption occurred in the northern hemisphere near disc center at around
09:50UTC on March 13. The associated CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph data from 10:48UTC onwards, is directed to the north-west. The
bulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance
for a glancing blow late on March 15. During the last 24 hours there were
no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available
coronagraph observations."

Lead Time: 15.92 hour(s)
Difference: -22.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2023-03-14T11:53Z

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